Epidemic spreading in an expanded parameter space: the supercritical scaling laws and subcritical metastable phases
نویسندگان
چکیده
So far most of the analysis coronavirus 2020 epidemic data has been focusing on a short-time window and consequently quantitative test statistical physical laws Coronavirus Epidemics with Containment Measures (CEwCM) is currently lacking. Here we report CEwCM over 230 days, covering full-time lapse first wave. We use 3D phase diagram tracking simultaneous evolution doubling time Td(t) reproductive number Rt(t) showing that this expanded parameter space needed for biological physics CEwCP. have verified in supercritical [Rt(t)>1, Td(t)<40 days] regime i) curve Z(t) total infected cases follows growth rate called Ostwald law; ii) exponential law Td(t)=A exp((t-t0)/s) as function iii) power Td(t)=C(Rt(t)-1)^-n exponent n depending definition Rt(t). The log-log plots versus (Rt-1) second wave unveil subcritical [Td(t)>100 arrested metastable phases Rt>1 where was kept constant followed by its explosion containment following same
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Physical Biology
سال: 2021
ISSN: ['1478-3967', '1478-3975']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1088/1478-3975/ac059d